Ukraine and the world on the verge of a demographic crisis: what is happening against the backdrop of war
More than a thousand days into the active phase of the war in Ukraine, the demographic situation remains critical. More than 52,000 babies were born in the capital alone, but at the national level, the country has the lowest birth rate in the world and a record high mortality rate.
Source: nv.ua
Fertility and mortality in Ukraine: the scale of the problem
According to the Ministry of Justice, in the first half of 2024, 87,655 children were born in Ukraine, which is 9% less than in the same period in 2023 and 1.5 times less than in 2021. In 2023, 187,000 newborns were recorded, the lowest figure since independence, which 2024 is likely to surpass in a negative sense. For comparison, 277,800 children were born in 2021.
In 2024, the mortality rate in Ukraine is the highest in the world – 18.6 per 1,000 people. In the first six months of the year, 250,972 citizens died. This is three times the birth rate.
The fertility rate in 2023 was 0.7 children per woman, and in 2024 it is expected to be even lower – only 0.6, while the norm for a stable population recovery is 2.15.
Causes and historical context
Ukraine’s demographic problems began in the early 1990s. While in 1991 the birth rate exceeded 600,000 children a year, since 1994 it has fallen below 500,000. In 2008-2013, there was a slight increase, but the outbreak of Russian aggression in 2014 led to a rapid decline again.
Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 significantly worsened the situation, making Ukraine one of the leaders in terms of depopulation. Economic instability, destroyed infrastructure, and constant danger to life have led to a massive postponement of plans to have children.
Global context: the demographic crisis
Ukraine is not the only country facing a declining birth rate. In 2023, the EU recorded the lowest birth rate in its history. In the first half of 2024 alone, Italy, for example, had a fertility rate of 6.5 per 1,000 people, which is close to Ukraine’s figures.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development notes that in 38 of the world’s most developed countries, the average fertility rate decreased from 3.3 children per woman in 1960 to 1.5 in 2022.
Forecasts and challenges
Ukraine has the potential to restore its demographic situation. History shows that at the first signs of stability, Ukrainians are ready to return to plans to start families. However, overcoming the demographic crisis requires comprehensive solutions, including support for families, healthcare reform, and economic recovery.
Demography as a matter of national security
Russia is using the demographic crisis as a factor in its hybrid warfare, seeking to depopulate Ukraine. However, the decline in birth rates and the prevalence of mortality is a problem not only for Ukraine but for Europe as a whole. The extinction of Ukraine is beneficial not only to Russia but also to other geopolitical players, which increases turbulence in the world.
For Ukraine, the demographic crisis is not only a domestic issue, but also an element of a global challenge. Success in overcoming these problems will be an indicator of the resilience of Ukrainian society and its ability to recover. But it is also a signal to the international community that support for Ukraine should remain on the agenda both in terms of security and in the context of combating the global demographic crisis.
