Ukraine is facing a serious population decline if the war continues until 2030. This was stated by Oleksandr Gladun, deputy director of the Mykhailo Ptukha Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, in an interview with TSN.
According to him, the institute’s experts are modeling several scenarios, and the worst-case scenario involves a further decline in the birth rate, an increase in mortality, and increased migration.
The war is exacerbating the demographic crisis
“The longer the war lasts, the worse the demographic situation in the country will be. The birth rate will remain low, mortality will remain high, migration abroad will continue, and the prospects for Ukrainians returning home will diminish,” Gladun said.
He explained that the return of Ukrainians from abroad remains unlikely, especially if the fighting continues for several more years. Even after the war ends, the scientist emphasized, the state will have to work for years to stabilize demographic processes.
“Even under the most optimistic forecasts, the population decline will continue at least until the middle of the century,” Gladun stressed.
Controls on Ukrainians leaving the country will not be tightened
The demographer doubts that the state will introduce strict restrictions on citizens leaving the country in the near future.
“This could make sense, as many people live in regions that are regularly shelled. But Ukraine is unlikely to adopt tougher measures. On the contrary, the rules for leaving the country have even been relaxed recently,” he added.
The consequences of the war will last for decades
According to forecasts by the Institute of Demography, even if the war ends by 2030, Ukraine’s population will continue to decline until at least 2050. Only after that will a gradual recovery be possible.
Experts emphasize that the main challenges remain:
- low birth rates,
- excess mortality due to the consequences of the war,
- migration of the working-age population,
- loss of potential for restoring the demographic pyramid.
