As Ukraine enters the fourth year of a full-scale war with Russia, it faces acute demographic challenges. Ella Libanova, Director of the Ptukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies, spoke about the threatening trends that have emerged as a result of the war during a discussion panel at the New Country project.
Source: LB
Ukraine’s population has fallen to 30 million
According to mobile operators Kyivstar, Vodafone, and Lifecell, about 30 million people live in the government-controlled territory as of mid-2024. Another 4.2 million Ukrainians are under temporary protection in the EU, and Libanova estimates the total number of military migrants to be around five million.
In addition, approximately three million more Ukrainians work abroad as labor migrants. Some of them have received residence permits and have actually integrated into new countries. In total, the number of Ukrainians abroad may reach nine million.
The likelihood of emigrants returning is decreasing with each passing month of the war
“God forbid that a third of those who have left return home,” Libanova said.
According to her, the longer the war lasts, the less likely Ukrainians will return. People are adapting, their children are enrolling in schools, adults are finding jobs.
More than 80% of Ukrainian women in Poland are employed, which is confirmed by Eurostat data. The unemployment rate among Ukrainian women in Poland is 18%, while in Ukraine it is 17%, which demonstrates the high level of integration of Ukrainians into European countries.
Depopulation is an inevitable reality for Ukraine
Even if all Ukrainians return from abroad, the demographic situation will remain difficult. The potential for population growth has been exhausted, and, according to Libanova, the only way out is to attract migrants from other countries. However, Ukrainian society is not ready for a significant number of migrants of a different culture and religion.
“We are not a xenophobic nation, but our tolerance for other cultures is not as high as in Western Europe. This is a challenge for Ukrainian society,” the demographer emphasized.
Social divisions and the risk of a split
According to Libanova, there are at least four social strata in Ukraine: the military who took part in the fighting; those who stayed in Ukraine during the war; internally displaced persons; and Ukrainians who went abroad.
These divisions can become a source of tension if they are manipulated in a hybrid war. Libanova emphasized the importance of personalized communication with emigrants to prevent a split in society.
Ukraine is facing unprecedented demographic challenges caused by the war. Restoring the population will require comprehensive solutions: from supporting repatriation to attracting migrants and developing a culture of tolerance.
“The future of the country depends on each of us,” Libanova summarized.
